Taking your defenition every cause is exactly as big as its result measured in energy.
Energy doesn't go away, it is just transformed. Some parts in (to us) useless heat or something like that.
But what is usefull and what is not is a matter of defenition.
Consider: we look at a painting of a rose and know for sure there is an artist behind that painting; it was not the result of spilled paint. Then there are those who look at the infinitely more complex actual rose and declare it an accident of nature.
The trick is that we do not know for sure if there is an artist behind the painting. We don't know if this was the first painting, nor if it is the only painting existing.
There is simply to much that we don't know to say anything useful about creation or not. It is not possible to say that something is more likely than something else.
Simply because we don't know anything