As a non-Calvinist, I was challenged on the meaning of 'the elect' earlier this year and ended up doing a rather intensive study on the use of the word in the New Testament. My husband put it up on his website, here:
http://www.setterfield.org/elect.htm
Now, is John 3:16 for real? Yes, it is.
God calls all those who respond to the truth (see Romans 1), and leads them to Christ. That is the part that the Calvinists seem to ignore. Christ came for us all. Our response to Him is everything in terms of our eternal destiny, and our response is our free choice.
You will note that the times 'predestined' is used in the New Testement, it is used in reference to the fact that the final goal for believers is predestined, but not who those believers will be. Did God always know? Yes, He always knew. Our decisions do not surprise Him any more than a toddler's decision to have a candy cane rather than vegetables surprises a mother -- but in both cases the decision is free and not programmed in or coerced.
Why free will? Because without it we cannot love, and the entire purpose of our lives is love: to love God and love our neighbor as ourselves. As Jesus said, on this hangs ALL the law and the prophets. In other words, love is the reason we were created and love is the reason we were saved. We cannot call it love if it is programmed into us. Love involves the choice to not love, or to choose the object of love. All of our creation is nonsense if Calvinism is true.
We each have a choice. And God presents each of us with enough truth to follow so that we have a choice about following it. And if we want the truth, God will lead us to Jesus, and Jesus will never turn us away.
John 3:16 is for real. It is also followed by John 3:17 and on, which states that the reason for condemnation is NOT sin, but rather refusal to believe in Christ. This again speaks of our freedom to respond to Christ or not. Sin was punished on the Cross -- all sin for all time. Jesus completed what justice demanded. It is for unbelief that we are condemned, if unbelief is our choice.
But God does not desire that anyone should perish. That's in 2 Peter 3:9.
We'll be gone for few days; back next week.